Google’s stock price hit $600 last week as the company continues to hit on all cylinders - search marketing dollars rolling in; acquisitions like DoubleClick and YouTube; a possible bid on UHF spectrum (here and here); etc. What can slow them down as they take over the world of media and advertising? Will they bring the same ad effectiveness to other media that they brought to search?
I have one idea, and it’s just an idea, but what if the thing that slows Google down is advertising itself, specifically the problems inherent with interruption media. As way of brief explanation for anyone who needs it, interruption media advertising is advertising based on the idea that a consumer is given entertainment, information, etc. and that is then interrupted to serve an ad to the audience, whether it’s a print ad in the middle of your Cat Fancy magazine article, a banner ad along the top of a CNN.com story or a TV spot during Grey’s Anatomy.
Google’s entire business model is predicated on serving the right ad at the right time to the right person. They historically have done this in two primary ways, Adwords and Adsense. The Adwords program serves ads, typically text, along your search engine results while Adsense serves ads on content pages of participating web sites. In super simple terms, Google gets paid when an ad is clicked on. Adwords always gets higher click-through rates than Adsense, and therefore generates more revenue for Google, for one simple reason – relevancy.
I managed pay-per-click (PPC) search marketing (Adwords and Adsense) for Harley-Davidson and I am a big fan, especially of Adwords. It is an incredible program, a modern day Yellow Pages. If you were a plumber in Milwaukee what better place to put your ad dollars than in the Yellow Pages where you know people who need a plumber will go. They are actively seeking out the product/service you provide. Search marketing works the same way and its full potential has still not been reached. This tactic contrasts with the plumber running TV spots, where you count on interrupting potential customers’ programming, hope they stick around to pay attention, hope they need your services, hope they remember you and then hope they call. That’s a lot of hope.
There is a huge difference between needing a plumber and therefore trying to find one in the search engine (Adwords) versus reading about, say, replacing storm windows on a DIY site and having an Adsense plumber ad show up. Even if you might need a plumber, it’s not as relevant. You’re not in active “plumber-seeking” mode. Your mind is on storm window work.
To serve more ads while capturing more data Google gives all their innovative products away – Gmail, Picasa, Google Docs, search and so on. Even the rumored Google phone would supposedly be “free” with ads served up. And this is a brilliant business model.
But with Google’s foray into radio ads, print ads, TV (subscription required) and online video and display ads, they’re getting even further away from the realm of the Adwords search ad model for the less effective, less impactful, less relevant world of interruption advertising. Now, Google captures so much data on us that they are going to get better and better at delivering the right interruption-media ad to you but, even with the best algorithms in the world, that ad you see is still interruption-based and therefore less relevant, so the success won’t ever be near the level of search. And since Google advertising is about pay-by-accountability/measurement of audience impact, that means measurements like click-through rates will be lower, which means revenue will be lower. And that doesn’t take into account the privacy backlash that could result from the ever-growing accumulation of personal data on users.
Am I worried about Google faltering any time soon? Uh, no.
Would I short their stock anytime soon? Nope.
Am I saying they should not get into the world of interruption media? Of course not, there’s lots of money there.
But would I count on their big move into interruption media ensuring revenue growth at the same pace that search advertising created for them? Not at all.
Would I tell advertisers not to use Google new offerings? No, in fact it’s more accountable than a lot of the junk out there.
But will it be as effective? Not a chance.
I’m not a computer scientist, don’t know algorithms and can’t guess at what super-brilliant ideas Google’s working on next. But I do know advertising and know that interruption media is less effective. If search dollars slow in a few years I don’t expect an interruption media strategy to pick up the slack completely.
What do you think, am I way off?